Nevertheless, a top postal official floated the idea last week that the agency, facing a gazillion dollar deficit and not having any other real ideas, should get into the booze delivery business. “There's a lot of money to be made in shipping beer, wine, and spirits,” said the official, who estimated it could be worth $50 million a year to the agency.
This was big news, given that it’s currently illegal to ship alcohol via the mail. A Dallas TV station was so enamored of the idea that it ran the story, complete with video of drunken college students. One regular blog visitor asked, hopefully, if this was the beginning of the end of the three-tier system.
Of course not. It may not even be especially lucrative. First, very little in the way of spirits is shipped in the U.S. each year, says Jeff Carroll of Ship Compliant in Denver, which helps wineries automate the compliance process. That's because spirits can't be shipped to consumers across state lines -- laws that eliminate one part of the Postal Service’s potential market. Beer, apparently, is still trying to figure out direct shipping, and is hampered by even higher shipping charges than wine. So that eliminates the second potential part of the market.
Which leaves wine. And, according to my calculations, the Postal Service would have to capture one-third of the wine direct shipping market to make that $50 million – an ambitious target for a startup competing with UPS and FedEx. That number is based on the Postal Service charging $4 a bottle (a standard price) and that 38 million bottles of wine were sold via direct shipping in 2012.
More worrisome is that the Postal Service doesn’t seem to understand the legal niceties involved. Why would someone be quoted as saying they would ship spirits and beer when there was no market for it? It's also not clear from the stories I saw whether the anyone at the Postal Service understands the three-tier system and its restrictions -- that 10 states don't allow direct shipping and that licences and approvals would be needed in most of the other 40 for the Postal Service to get legal status as a shipper.
And finally, given that gazillion dollar deficit, what difference is $50 million going to make? Better to sit down with Congress to figure out its future in the Internet Age than waste time and money on something that seems so hit and miss.